The Road to the 2024 Senate Majority (Part 1)

In 2019 and 2020, Joe Biden confidently proclaimed that as the Democratic nominee, he would be the candidate to defeat Donald Trump, keep Nancy Pelosi in the House of Representatives as Speaker, and take back the United States Senate. True to his word, Biden did what he was hired by the Democrats to do and reclaimed the White House, maintained a slim majority in the House, and with a dramatic twist—thanks to two Georgia runoff victories—secured control of the U.S. Senate. The Senate stood at a 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the decisive tie-breaking vote. It was a hard-fought victory that many Democrats hoped would solidify their power for years to come.

Four years later, there's no sugarcoating it: the Senate map for Democrats in 2024 looks grim. With a reliably safe seat in Maryland potentially in jeopardy and other key races in states like Ohio looking uncertain, the outlook couldn’t be more dire for Democrats hoping to retain their Senate majority. After narrowly losing the House in the 2022 midterm elections, the Senate is now up for grabs, with Republicans holding the advantage. While many Senate races will be close, the hardest fought and highest-profile contests will take place in key battleground states. These races won’t just decide control of the Senate—they could shape the broader direction of the country for the next several years.

Amongst the vulnerable states, we start with the seat Democrats are most confident of holding. Pennsylvania is, by almost all accounts, the quintessential swing state. In 2016, it voted for Trump while also re-electing Republican Pat Toomey to the Senate. Then, in 2020, it swung back to the Democrats as Biden reclaimed his first home state. The trend continued in 2022, with Democrat John Fetterman defeating television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz by a surprisingly comfortable margin of 5%. Fetterman was not the overwhelming favourite to win, given it was expected to be a Republican year and his widely criticised debate performance against Dr. Oz was seen as a major liability and made Biden’s June debate performance look like a Socratic masterpiece.

In 2024, the Democrats are fielding a seasoned incumbent, Bob Casey Jr., son of the former Governor of Pennsylvania. Casey the younger was first elected to the Senate in 2006, Casey has a formidable reputation as a fundraising powerhouse and savvy political operator. He has never fallen below 53% in any of his Senate races, having won in relatively favourable years for Democrats (2006, 2012, and 2018). However, 2024 is by no means certain to be as favourable, with Republicans seeing an opportunity. They've recruited David McCormick, a former official from the Bush (the 2nd) Administration. McCormick, unlike the more controversial Mehmet Oz, offers a more understated profile, though his personal wealth and ability to self-fund a statewide campaign could make him a formidable opponent.

Remaining in the Rust Belt, Senator Sherrod Brown is another Democratic survivor in a region where Republicans have been ascendant. First elected to the senate in 2006, Brown has remarkably navigated a Republican-leaning state while proudly brandishing his progressive credentials. His distinctively rustic voice, dishevelled appearance, and unwavering support from Labour unions have all contributed to the narrative of this three-time statewide winner. However, the question remains: has Brown's winning streak reached its end? Ohio, even more so than Pennsylvania, has shifted from being a toss-up to leaning Republican. Donald Trump carried the state comfortably in both 2016 and 2020, and J.D. Vance, now Trump’s Vice-Presidential pick, won his Ohio Senate race by a solid 6% margin in 2022, despite facing a strong challenger in Democrat Tim Ryan. Given these recent trends, the political winds in Ohio seem to be blowing against Brown.

That said, it's not all doom and gloom for Brown. His Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, is relatively inexperienced, with no prior political background. Moreno has faced some hurdles, notably a scandal in August 2024 where a profile from 2008, purportedly seeking "Men for 1-on-1 sex," surfaced from someone with access to Moreno’s email. Though married, Moreno seems to have weathered the storm. Despite this, the Ohio Senate race will be one to watch closely. While the landscape may initially look more favourable for Democrats due to Moreno's vulnerabilities, the looming presence of Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket will energise conservative voters. Republicans are expected to throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at unseating Sherrod Brown, making this contest a true battleground in the 2024 election.

One of the few competitive races in 2024 without an incumbent running for re-election is Maryland, which is perhaps the most surprising race on this list. The Old Line State hasn’t had a Republican senator since Charles Mathias retired in 1986, opting not to seek a fourth term. Furthermore, Biden carried the state with a dominant 65% of the vote in 2020, compared to Trump’s 32%. So why is Maryland a point of discussion in 2024? The answer lies with one person: Lawrence Joseph Hogan Jr., better known as Larry Hogan. The former two-term Republican governor left office as one of the most popular governors in the country, boasting approval ratings in the high 70s, and is widely recognised as a 'never-Trumper'. Hogan’s political influence in the state is undeniable, and the Hogan family name carries weight—his father and namesake was a Maryland congressman and later served as Executive of Prince George's County, a position now held by the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, Angela Alsobrooks.

The big question is whether Hogan's brand and his renowned success as governor will be enough to make Alsobrooks an also-ran. Despite Hogan’s popularity and near-universal name recognition, Alsobrooks is a formidable candidate in her own right. According to the Federal Election Commission, she holds a financial advantage, with more money raised and more cash on hand than Hogan. However, in a state where Hogan’s name ID is so strong, campaign finances may not be the deciding factor. The state remains under-polled, and much of the focus has been on the national presidential race. Complicating matters is the decline of split-ticket voting. In 2020, only one state voted differently in its Senate and presidential races, with Republican Susan Collins winning re-election in Maine despite Biden carrying the state. This national trend raises the stakes for Hogan, who will need to convince voters to split their tickets once again.

Ultimately, this race will likely hinge on whether Hogan can sufficiently persuade moderates that he will govern in the Senate like the pragmatic leader he was as governor, rather than merely campaign as one. Critical issues like reproductive rights and education are sure to take centre stage. While this contest will be more localised and less influenced by the presidential race compared to others, Hogan’s moderate reputation and political legacy will be put to the test. Whether his brand is strong enough to overcome Maryland’s deeply Democratic tilt remains to be seen, but Alsobrooks is no pushover, and this race is poised to be one of the most interesting in 2024.

These high-profile Senate races reflect the broader struggles facing both parties in a shifting political landscape. With incumbents like Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey Jr. fighting to hold onto their seats, and open races like Maryland presenting unpredictable challenges, the battle for Senate control is far from certain.