The Road to the 2024 Senate Majority (Part 2)

The 2024 Senate races in Montana, Nevada and Arizona are shaping up to be critical in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate. In Part 1, we explored the pivotal contests in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Maryland. Now, we turn our attention to the West, where Democrats currently hold two of the three seats—Jon Tester in Montana and Jacky Rosen in Nevada—while Arizona presents an open seat after Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s decision not to seek reelection. With these races expected to be highly competitive, their outcomes could ultimately decide which party controls the Senate after 2024.

In Montana, Senator Jon Tester is running for his fourth term in one of the most closely watched races of the cycle. Despite Donald Trump winning the state by over 16 points in 2020, Tester has built a career as a moderate Democrat who frequently breaks with his party on issues important to Montana voters. His ability to survive in such a heavily Republican state comes from his "Montana-first" approach, where he focuses on local concerns and adopts a pragmatic stance on issues such as financial regulation and gun control, often voting with Republicans when it aligns with his state’s values.

Tester’s challenger is Tim Sheehy, a 38-year-old political newcomer and former Navy SEAL who founded Bridger Aerospace. Sheehy is a rising Republican star, with Trump’s endorsement boosting his profile. However, while Sheehy’s military and business record makes him an appealing candidate, he remains largely untested in the political arena. This race will hinge on whether Tester’s local appeal and moderate brand can hold up in a state where Trump remains immensely popular. It promises to be a tight contest, likely going down to the wire, with the potential to be one of the deciding factors in the broader battle for Senate control.

The Nevada Senate race will be a key Western contest to watch on election night as first-term Senator Jacky Rosen seeks a second term. Nevada, a purple state that leans Democrat, hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. Joe Biden won the state by less than 3% in 2020, reflecting its competitive nature. Rosen, who unseated incumbent Dean Heller during the 2018 blue wave, has maintained a lower profile than some other Democratic moderates but is centring her re-election campaign on her ability to work across party lines. She is focusing on issues like lowering prescription drug prices and supporting bipartisan immigration reform, messaging aimed at appealing to both moderate Democrats and Republican-leaning voters in the state that borders Mexico.

Rosen’s Republican challenger is Sam Brown, a veteran who was severely injured in Afghanistan by an improvised explosive device. Brown, a graduate of West Point, aligns closely with Donald Trump on key issues, such as supporting the construction of a border wall and backing the 2018 tax cuts. While Rosen currently holds an edge in polling and boasts a significant 3-to-1 fundraising advantage, Brown’s military background and appeal to Trump’s base make this race competitive in a state where campaign funding and strategic messaging play a critical role. In a place known for betting big, both candidates are pushing all their chips to the centre of the table in what could be one of the closest races of 2024.

Arizona, home to political icons like Barry Goldwater and John McCain, is the only state that has been covered without an incumbent senator running for re-election in 2024. Instead, the race will be a showdown between Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake. Lake, a high-profile MAGA Republican and former news anchor, rose to prominence during her 2022 gubernatorial campaign, where she narrowly lost by just 18,000 votes out of over 1.5 million cast. Known for her media savvy and staunch support of Donald Trump—who she insists won the 2020 election—Lake could emerge as the next firebrand conservative from a state that has produced its fair share of influential right-wing figures. Her blend of populism, media skills, and strong backing from Trump has made her a rising star in Republican circles.

On the other side is Ruben Gallego, a progressive Democrat with an impressive résumé. A Harvard graduate, Iraq War veteran, and sitting U.S. Congressman, Gallego has been a vocal critic of retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema, whose defection from the Democratic Party to become an independent was partly in response to his candidacy. While his sharp criticism of Sinema energises the Democratic base, it could risk alienating moderates and independents who may appreciate her centrist positions. Arizona, now considered a swing state, has become a national political battleground. With Trump slightly favoured to win Arizona in the 2024 presidential race, Gallego’s challenge will be convincing voters that his personal story and progressive vision can carry him to victory. If not, the Senate may find itself welcoming one of Trump’s most vocal allies in Kari Lake.

As the political frontier shifts westward, the Senate races in Montana, Nevada, and Arizona will be crucial in determining which party controls the upper chamber. With incumbents like Jon Tester and Jacky Rosen fighting for survival in states that lean Republican in 2024, and Arizona’s open seat offering a stark choice between progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego and MAGA Republican Kari Lake, the stakes couldn't be higher. Each race represents more than just a contest between individual candidates; they embody the broader struggle for the future direction of American politics. As voters head to the polls, the outcomes of these Western state showdowns will likely reverberate far beyond election night.